Fire In the Belly

Human Events
You can’t get to the White House without it.
by  John Hayward

On Thursday’s edition of her Fox News program On the Record, Greta van Susteren asked Sarah Palin if she had the “fire in the belly” lacked by Mike Huckabee, who took a pass on making a presidential run last weekend.

“My problem is that I do have the fire in my belly," replied Palin.  “I am so adamantly supportive of the good traditional things about America and our free enterprise system.  And I want to make sure that America is put back on the right track, and we only do that by defeating Obama in 2012.  I have that fire in my belly."

An incandescent belly can prove useful in many ways for someone who wants to influence the race without declaring a candidacy, but it’s absolutely vital for anyone who wants to throw their hat into the ring.  Palin cited the personal trials facing candidates and their families, and the unpleasant “necessary evil” of fundraising.  One should also bear in mind that defeating Barack Obama in 2012 will not be enough, for that will begin an even more bitter struggle against the system he defends, and that system does not shy from a little collateral damage in its fight for survival.

Palin sees the Republican Party’s principles as “sound,” but the “idio… syncracies of some of the characters within the party… well, they are what they are.”  I just know she was about to say something other than “idiosyncracies” there.  Check out the video over at Conservatives4Palin and listen to her say it.  Note to self: memorize that word for future interviews.

Palin defended the “appropriate role” of the media as providing “context” and holding candidates “accountable for their records” by holding their “feet to the fire.”  Belly fire is good, but foot fire can really mess up your ability to run for high office.

There was a rather notable example of the media pouring context all over Newt Gingrich last Sunday, and the ensuing week should serve as an object lesson for how not to deal with it.  If you’re a Republican, you’re going to face a tough media landscape, and your past statements will be used to construct an unhappy “context” for your campaign.  Prepare for that now, instead of complaining about it later.

If you’ve got the proper level of fire in the belly, even a past filled with contradictory statements should not be too much of an obstacle.  Gingrich said he used to be wrong about “individual mandates” and has changed his mind, but he couldn’t re-create his intellectual journey upon demand.  

There is a natural perception that someone who is passionate and sincere about such a profound change of heart would think long and hard about why he used to be wrong, and would therefore be unruffled by the sudden deployment of an old sound bite.  He shouldn’t be thrown off balance when asked to recall the terms of a debate he already had with himself.  Saying "everyone used to think that way" isn't good enough.  Why was "everyone" wrong?

Primary voters are probably even pickier about this than the general electorate.  They are more attuned to suggestions of insincerity, especially when they have so often felt forgotten or betrayed by previous candidates.  Today’s Republican primary voters are not interested in a carefully negotiated surrender to bankruptcy… but there are popular forces which led us to the current crisis, and it would be foolish to think they will be easily dispelled.

Palin recalled Gingrich telling her earlier this year to “slow down and really think through” what she has to say.  That was sound advice.  A good, hot, enduring fire in the belly must be stoked carefully.

“In her icy lair she waits” – Palin the Anti-Politician…

A great article from C4P by David Riddick. Love his characterization of Iowa supporters :-)  ~ teledude

C4P
by: David L. Riddick (aka The Aged P)


In her icy lair she waits while perplexed scribblers try to convince themselves that beside a distant northern lake there is no shadow roaming free beyond the parameters of their prescribed calculus and ingrained ritualistic incantations.

But it is only pretence because in reality they are ever glancing over their shoulders for although they publicly voice disdain they are privately nervous of someone who refuses to engage within the rules of their vaunted choreography

That is why in several of the pieces that emerged in the aftershock of Huckabee’s withdrawal the name of Sarah Palin was either left out or allowed but a cursory nod. Of course they might merely have been falling in line behind the grand panjandrum of prognostication George Will who returned from his visit to the Delphic Oracle and proclaimed that in 2012 the GOP nominee lacing up armour to enter the lists against Obama would either be Daniels or Pawlenty.

Time was, of course, when George’s diktat would have been enough to seal the deal. Pundits and their media masters controlled the slip road to the information highway and the most that any ordinary Jane or Joe could do was to splutter over their morning cornflakes and shout abuse at the cat in order to let off steam.

But now the GWs of the world are left preaching to an empty chapel as the world and his wife are surfing along the information highway themselves.

Poor George – how frustrating it must be to have your once booming voice reduced to a constricted squeak.
With all the other candidates and pseudo candidates there is blather about exploratory committees, raising money, hiring consultants and strategists, testing the waters in Iowa, fluttering their eyelids at an assortment of governors, politicians and celebrities and, above all, dancing to the musical pipes of the self proclaimed kings and queens of the media.
The result? Allahpundit goes orgasmic.
But, if she chooses to enter the GOP race, it is possible that Sarah Palin could decide to dance to her own tune.

Exploratory committee? A prayer, chat with Todd and the family and a couple of spiders who live in the Palin garage = job done!

Raising money? As one Hot Air comment pitched it

If Palin enters the fray, everything changes. Romney might be able to generate truckloads of money, but Palin can make it rain from the sky on demand.

Consultants/strategists? Here’s Matthew Continetti

Palin’s entry would completely scramble the presidential campaign. She’s quite simply the most famous Republican woman in the world, with shrewd instincts, charisma, passionate supporters, and no fear

Why would someone like that need a consultant? Why would anybody with an ounce of savvy need a consultant?

A consultant is a person who borrows your watch and then charges you to tell you what time it is

Iowa? Once every four years thousands of “consultants/strategists” parachute into Iowa alongside legions of media hacks and their support staff. For several weeks this international assortment of scribblers and voiceovers pretends to take an interest in ethanol subsidies and the Waterloo Black Hawks. Once the caucuses are over they all rush back to their big city apartments and forget about Iowa until the year of the next Olympics – including the candidates who have been pimping themselves to Iowans for several months.

But in Iowa, just as there is in every state, below the first and second tier of GOP apparatchiks who love to sound off to any out of state hack with a mike or a blackberry, there are probably more than a thousand lower level enthusiasts who will gladly crawl barelegged over fifty miles of broken glass to work for Palin.

As for endorsements, she is probably the only political figure in America who walks alone. If they come, then fine. But after the heavy lifting she did for so many candidates in 2010 the lack of reciprocity after the Gifford shooting was quite an eye opener. But then the mathematics of the GOP political equation became clearer. The Republican Party needs Sarah Palin. But perhaps she does not need the Republican Party.

Indeed, if she decides to stand she gave Sean Hannity a clue of how she might position herself towards the end of their recent interview. (10.00-10.55 in the clip)

When he asked her about her views on the current speculation of who might be throwing their hat into the ring she became rather dismissive of such antics so early on in the game. She used the phrase “both sides of the aisle”, talked of “fighting for Family, Faith and Freedom” and, the money quote, declared she was not a real fan of politicians.

This is trademark Palin. Though she wears the Republican label she really puts herself forward as being above party politics. This is how she won and governed in Alaska – and why she continued to be so unpopular with the official GOP establishment up there.

This is why the national GOP elite and their battalions of consultants, lobbyists and media drones loathe her as much as the liberal/left. Positioning oneself above the party disengages power from the cogwheel of the spoils system – the jobs for the boys, the waivers, the sweet government contracts, the backroom deals. The party structure feeds on this and for many it is the raison d’être for the whole mechanism of politics. She briefly broke that culture in Alaska and would do the same in Washington.

Quite a while ago, soon after the dust of 2008 had settled I wrote a comparison between Sarah Palin and the French leader Charles de Gaulle and I still stand by that.

As an Englishman I was always naturally suspicious of anything that de Gaulle did because I knew that he would never fail to place the interests of France above everything else. But I also admired him for it and yearned for the day when we might have such a leader (to my astonishment, in 1979 when the UK had sunk to its lowest depths, she came.)

De Gaulle was one of the most brilliant political operators in any modern democracy. But he achieved success by offering himself to the French people as an anti-politician, concerned only for the future of France.

De Gaulle was relatively unknown to the French people in 1940 but millions of them heard his broadcast from London at the moment of their deepest despair and in those few minutes he became the inspiration and hope for so many. Governor Palin walked onto the stage at the Republican Convention, electrified millions and stole their hearts forever with her grace, her honesty and her love of life sealing there and then a contract and covenant of support through fire and flood whatever may happen

I wrote that in March 2009 at a time when on both sides of the pond “those who know best” had her already shredded and dumped into the dustbin of history. But I had a sense that there were a lot of ordinary Americans who had sealed that contract and covenant – and I was right.

So now my American friends wait and wonder. The runes have been thrown but have yet to be read.

Who knows what the future holds….

Sarah Palin, Leader Of The Pack

Eurasia Review
by: Lloyd Marcus

So, who do I like as our republican presidential candidate in 2012?

Parodying the song recorded by The Shangri-Las: “The liberal media is always putting her down (down,down). They said, she came from the wrong said of town. They told us she was bad. Then I knew she was the best we had. That’s when I fell for the leader of the pack.” Who am I singing about? Obviously, the one and only Sarah Palin.

Folks, it is a bit too early to go “all in” on any presidential candidate. I really like Herman Cain. But when I think of the one person who appears to be uncontrolled by liberal media attacks; who epitomizes the kind of “in your face” no holds barred approach to attacking Obama’s horrific record, we tea party patriots are so desperately longing for, hands down, it is Sarah Palin.

I know. I know. Republican elites and conventional wisdom says, “Be reasonable. Palin is too toxic. She could never win. Pick an electable candidate like Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney.”

When Obamacare first became law, Huckabee said repealing it would be difficult. He suggested that we try to find some good in it. My mental buzzer went off, “Wrong answer”.

On Limbaugh’s radio program, Donald Trump cautioned Paul Ryan to work with the democrats and not be too aggressive about moving forward with his budget proposal. Again, Trump set off my buzzer, “Wrong answer”.

“Working with democrats” ALWAYS means compromising our values, principles and desires. We want conservative representatives with backbone in Washington fighting on our behalf. Yes, the liberal media will portray them as Satan incarnate. But, there’s a new sheriff in town called the Tea Party and we have our representatives’ backs.

As for Romney, I do not sense a fire in the belly of this man about standing up for conservatism or the Tea Party.

The liberal media is planning a sequel to the McCain/Obama race in which they picked our “moderate” losing candidate.

Once again, the liberal media is telling us who is “too Tea Party” to win and why we should pick a moderate to run against Obama in 2012. The title of the liberal media’s sequel is, “Sucker the Conservatives Two: This Time We Really Think You’re Stupid”.

Let me tell you what I think about moderates. Even Jesus had a problem with moderates. He said, “You are lukewarm–neither hot nor cold, I will spew you out of my mouth”. In other words, for crying out loud, have the backbone, character and conviction to take a stand for something. The liberal media wants to set us up with another moderate linguine to lose AGAIN!

The 2012 presidential election is going to be all about Obama, mmm, mmm, mmm! Thus, we need a candidate who understands this reality and will boldly go after Obama politically; someone with all American John Wayne true grit committed to tea party principles. So far, our John Wayne is a Momma Grizzly.

As I said, it is a bit too early to formally endorse anyone. Palin may or may not throw her hat into the ring.
Now, regarding the issues, Palin is pretty much on the same page as most of us tea party patriots; drill baby drill, smaller government and etc.

And once again, I must cite her boldness and confidence when espousing her conservative beliefs. You never see Palin dancing around questions from liberal media hacks trying to make her conservative ideas sound mean, heartless, stupid and racist. It is extremely refreshing and encouraging to see someone on our side fearlessly challenging the liberal media!

And what about presidential charisma? In my nationwide travels on four Tea Party Express tours, in which Palin participated, nobody sparked excitement nor struck a stronger emotional chord with audiences at the rallies than Sarah Palin. She is a rock star. The people love her.

I pray that whomever we select as our presidential candidate will grasp the seriousness of the situation in which we find our country. Various potential republican presidential candidates are good people with great conservative ideas to get our country back on track. The most important criteria for a candidate to win my support is a willingness to launch a shock and awe all out assault on Obama’s horrific record and terrifying agenda.

Obama has the bully pulpit of the Oval Office, his democrat minions, racist black so-called civil rights groups and a sycophant liberal mainstream media all working in concert for him to be reelected in 2012. America can not survive another republican presidential candidate committed to “playing nice” for fear of being called racist. As they say in AA, “Half measures avail us nothing”.

If Obama is reelected in 2012, America as we know it is over. King Obama must be politically dethroned.

About the author:
Lloyd Marcus
Lloyd Marcus is the songwriter and vocalist of the "American Tea Party Anthem." He currently serves as president of NAACPC (National Association for the Advancement of Conservative People of Color). Visit his website at http://www.LloydMarcus.com

The what-happened-to-Palin mystery solved

A great explanation of why the left hates Governor Palin so...the short answer...her very existence proves their pro-abortion ideology is a lie.  ~ teledude

Washington Examiner
By: Noemie Emery

Some of the best, though not last, words about Sarah Palin come from Joshua Green of the Atlantic Monthly, trying to square the circle between Palin I, the prenomination wildly popular centrist reformer, and the polarizing, divisive, culture-war icon that is Palin II.
 
As governor she was the very antithesis of the boneheaded ditz of our snottier pundits: a shrewd, canny, focused and very effective state governor.

"The Alaskan Palin fought corruption within her own party, attacked the nexus of government and big business, avoided polarizing feuds and cut successful bipartisan deals," Ross Douthat tells us, someone who settled "insoluble" problems and put her state on a glide path to fiscal integrity.

Compare her at this stage to Barack Obama at a similar point in his life, and she is by far the more accomplished political figure, and by far the less partisan, yet within months she was fixed in some people's minds as a wing nut and a cretin. What occurred?

Better ask what had not. Point one, Sen. John McCain's idiot handlers cast her in the traditional role of a partisan slasher, not in her own role of reformer and maverick.

Point two, they showcased her weakness: She knew as much about geopolitics as most first-term governors, and needed a heavy tutorial.

Halfway in, they threw her on the mercy of liberal anchors, while her knowledge of economic and energy issues remained a dark secret. (In fact, her whole record remained a dark secret.)

Third, she became a culture-war flash point, responding to ferocious attacks with defiance and anger that created a cycle of rhetorical violence. But what made those attacks so vicious and personal?

Let us suggest a point four. In an alternative universe, what might have happened had she had three children, not five? With Track, Willow and Piper, she would have had a boy about to join the armed forces and two little daughters too young to be trouble, and her life would have been the ideal.

It was the two others -- the unwed, pregnant girl and the Down syndrome baby -- occurring at once in one year in one family, that set culture-war fires aflame.

What drives the pro-choicers? The idea of control. What do they say when in a tight corner? Abortion is wrong in the eyes of a few, but with Down syndrome babies and pregnant teenagers, it becomes a necessity.
Here was a woman confronted with both, but who refused to see the necessity and did not seize the option to tidy things up. Who resists the temptation to tidy things up when the option is offered?

Someone, that is, whose values are beyond comprehension, who barely seems civilized, and upon whom attacks of all kinds can be made -- such as the joke about the younger teen daughter getting "knocked up" at a ball game, the incest allusions on comedy programs, the gynecological riffs of the no-longer-serious blogger.
The New York Times played Wasilla as Dogpatch with sled dogs. Palin's refusal to conform to their concept of reason got her labeled in their minds as trash.

On the Left, this let Bush hatred flow seamlessly into Palin dementia; on the Right, it prompted the gentry conservatives (including the one who co-hosted a talk show with Eliot Spitzer) to rush to distance themselves from it all.

Demeaned by her presence, they let everyone know it. Never mind that her actual record in office tracked perfectly with the No Labels approach that they trumpeted later. Record? What record? They're intellectuals, aren't they? Do not confuse them with facts.

Where Do Candidates Stand in Iowa After Huckabee’s Announcement?

Caffeinated Thoughts
by Shane Vander Hart

With Saturday’s announcement from former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee that he wasn’t going to run this cycle the 2012 race for the Republican nomination for President has been busted wide open.

The big question of week is who will benefit?  Where will his supporters go?  There has been much, much, much speculation.  Tons of it.  Let me throw my two cents in here.

I haven’t the foggiest.  All candidates benefit from the void he leaves.  He was the frontrunner, both in in Iowa and nationally.

It’s got to make former Massachusetts Mitt Romney smile, as he’s typically number two or three depending on the poll.  In Iowa if social conservatives don’t coalesce around a candidate then he could skate to a win.  But it’s likely that the field will be winnowed down some after the Ames Straw Poll so it’s a short-term advantage.  His speech on health care was a non-starter, and he will have a difficult time getting those concerned about fiscal policy only on board with his record on this.  So while Huckabee not entering the race removes a roadblock, I don’t see it helping him beyond that.  Romney is really at the mercy of what happens with other candidates.  I believe he is topped out.   He has greater potential to lose support not gain it in Iowa.

Former Governor Tim Pawlenty’s evangelical bona fides may help him pick up some Huckabee supporters.  However being in the state as much as he has been he’s still not as well known and he still hasn’t polled well.  His executive experience will be attractive to some.  His record on life, marriage and other social issues is good, but not extensive.  He will still have trouble with tea partiers regarding his position on education and cap and trade.  Pawlenty also has the ability, I believe better than any other candidate, to pull those who favored Romney in 2008.

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann can also benefit.  Actually she’s already been pulling away some former Huckabee supporters like State Senator Kent Sorenson (R-Indianola) and Wes Enos.  I suspect some will give her a hard look as well.  She’s well liked and I’ve been told she will be announcing soon.  She is liked with the TEA party.  She should be a strong candidate, but she needs to spend more time in Iowa which will be more difficult for her to do being a sitting Congresswoman.

Herman Cain could very well be a wild card.  He put in a solid debate performance in South Carolina (minus the question on Afghanistan).  People resonate with his message.  Being a Baptist minister he’s a person that Iowa evangelicals would be comfortable with.  He has significant TEA party support, and along with picking up some Huckabee supporters he could very well gain some momentum.  He is also an attractive candidate for those who value business experience, so Romney loses the “I’m the only businessman in the race” card.  He is arguably one of the best communicators with the current field.  Cain is certainly somebody to watch, and may have the potential to replicate what Mike Huckabee did in Iowa last cycle.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum will also be sure to pick up some Huckabee supporters, especially those whose top issue is abortion.  He also has been solid in communicating a worldview that resonates with former Huckabee supporters.  He also gave a solid debate performance in South Carolina and has been solid in his speeches.  Aside from social conservative issues, he has done, in my opinion, in articulating his position on foreign policy and national security.  He also has been to Iowa, has assembled a pretty good team, and is positioned well in Iowa.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich will likely see some Huckabee supporters go to his camp.  He has a couple of problems that will make it hard for him to gain ground in Iowa.  The first is his personal history of infidelity, even though yes there are some social conservatives who will look past this, there are many who won’t. His second problem is that he just shot himself in the foot with fiscal conservatives, TEA Party folks, and anyone against the individual mandate for health insurance by doubling down on his support of it. Then compared to other candidates from what I’ve seen so far (and I’ll get a chance to look at him again today) he struggles with retail politicking which is essential in Iowa.

Former Ambassador and Utah Governor Jon Huntsman… who?  Seriously he has all the baggage of Mitt Romney and only a fraction of the name recognition.  His is a campaign that is going nowhere, fast and not just in Iowa.  With Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, if he runs and I’m not convinced that he will, I don’t see him benefiting from a Huckabee departure.  I do see him pulling support away from Romney and Pawlenty though.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul may see some support come his way from former Huckabee supporters, but I doubt it will be much.  I believe Congressman Paul has potential to do better this cycle than last, but I still believe he has very limited appeal.  His recent remarks that he would have been unwilling to go after Osama Bin Laden also demonstrates he’s out-of-touch with the majority of the national electorate, not just the Republican Party on this issue.

Donald Trump is out.  He was a flash in the pan prospective candidate.

The obvious wildcard would be former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  Her announcement one way or the other on 2012 is the next major one I’m sure candidates are looking at.  In Iowa she has polled recently at 3rd or 4th.  She attracts evangelical voters, women voters and she is well liked in Iowa.  She could win over a significant number of Huckabee supporters – if she’s runs.  She’s not been to Iowa since her book tour.  

There is some grassroots volunteer organizing being done on her behalf, but that’s it.  I think she can compete here, but she needs to be here.  She will need to announce soon if she intends to run and be competitive in Iowa.

Huckabee not jumping in helps everybody, but I don’t believe it is going to be a silver bullet for anyone in Iowa.  The winner of the Iowa Caucus will have to be the person with the best grassroots organization, who can appeal both to fiscal and social conservatives, and spend a lot of time here.

Open GOP field raises profile of straw poll

The Des Moines Register had an interesting break down of the first real test of Presidential candidates support that happens in Iowa this August 13th at the Ames Straw Poll. This is a good read, but it is apparent Christopher Rants doesn't quite "get it." Oh well, he will soon enough. It was fun to see Peter and Michelle get their names mentioned. O4P rules! ~  teledude

The Des Moines Register

By     JENNIFER JACOBS

With the Iowa straw poll a mere 90 days away, the absence of an obvious leader in the GOP race for the presidency, or even an obvious lineup, has left Republicans in a state of unease - but the uncertainty has also heightened anticipation, insiders say.

"It's wide open, and I think it's extremely unpredictable," said Mary Cownie, a former spokeswoman for the Iowa Republican Party.

Politics insiders in Iowa say the dynamics of the race will make this year's nonbinding event in Ames different from past years: More than anything, it could be a way to get a second-tier ticket punched, or serve as a path to legitimacy for someone who's betting it all on Iowa.

Yet there's still time on the clock - just barely - for a wild card of national stature to emerge on the straw poll stage, strategists said. After all, then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush, scion of a political dynasty, didn't make his first Iowa visit until June 12, 1999, and still won the straw poll.

Scheduled this year for Aug. 13, the straw poll is a combination state GOP fundraising event, closely watched measuring stick of early campaign strength, and a dress rehearsal for the first-in-the-nation caucuses here in February.

Republicans Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum are definitely in for the straw poll, Des Moines Register interviews with campaign aides and Iowa insiders show.

Poll-leading power candidate Mitt Romney will make his first Iowa visit of the year on May 27, but insiders don't expect a heavy presence here from him - or from Jon Huntsman or Sarah Palin before the straw poll.
An Aug. 11 Fox News/Iowa Republican Party debate, scheduled just two days earlier, will make it harder for contenders to debate and then skip town, campaign aides said.

Mike Huckabee took one unknown variable out of the political calculus Saturday night by announcing he would not seek the presidency.

The former Arkansas governor came in a surprising second in the 2007 straw poll and won the 2008 Iowa caucuses. If he had joined the race and campaigned actively for the straw poll, he would have been expected to win, relegating the rest of the field to competing for second.

Insiders see variety of scenarios unfolding

With the field far from settled, top Iowa operatives outlined a number of possible scenarios for potential straw poll contestants:

- Romney supporters said they don't think he needs to go through the tuneup of the straw poll and may keep a light calendar in Iowa through the caucuses, scheduled for Feb. 6. He went all-out to compete in the straw poll last cycle and won. So he doesn't have to prove he can win in Ames, the theory goes.

But Romney's lead evaporated through the fall, and a united evangelical turnout dropped him to second place in the caucuses.

This year, Romney can save his cash with, for the most part, little pressure, insiders said.

- Pawlenty appears poised for a full-out run at a high straw poll finish. He's working from the traditional playbook that calls for a beefy Iowa team, the choicest strategists, a big cash outlay and a top finish in Ames to be viable. It's Iowa or bust, politics watchers said.

"He's put all his chips on the table early, so he needs to win the straw poll big or go home," said Christopher Rants of Sioux City, a political consultant and former Republican leader in the Iowa House.

- Bachmann is someone who could upset him, several Republican insiders said.

"I think someone like Bachmann, who can whip people into a frenzy, can exert maximum pressure late, and turn this into a movement can pull off a stunner," said Robert Haus, who managed Phil Gramm's improbable tie with Bob Dole in the 1996 straw poll, and Steve Forbes' second place to Bush in the 2000 straw poll and caucuses.
- Gingrich last week became the first big-name Republican to officially announce he is running for president, and he has scheduled a 17-event swing in Iowa this week. Craig Schoenfeld, Gingrich's Iowa campaign director, confirmed Thursday that Gingrich will participate in the straw poll.

- Some Republicans have written off Palin, despite increasing efforts by Organize4Palin in Iowa, led by activists Peter Singleton of California and Michelle McCormick of Texas.
"She's not running," Rants said flatly.

- Paul, who made his presidential bid official Friday, is a wild card who might be someone to watch in August, strategists said. The level of organization amid libertarian-leaning Iowans can be hard for the Republican establishment to detect.

- Or Donald Trump might have enough celebrity after his big speech to an expected crowd of about 2,600 in Des Moines on June 10 to score a victory in the straw poll, insiders said.

'A relentless project' in campaign organization

To win the straw poll, a candidate will need only about 5,000 to 6,000 votes - but that's no small feat, strategists said. Success is not about name recognition, ballot appeal or fiery speeches. It takes money to pay for block-and-tackle organization building to get people to Ames.

"It's not an easy task. It's a relentless project," said Steve Scheffler, whose campaign experience dates to 1987, when he was a staffer for religious conservative Pat Robertson's presidential efforts here.

The straw poll may weed out lesser-known contenders, perhaps Gary Johnson, Fred Karger and Roy Moore, who don't have a large following, but could linger on the Iowa scene as long as they've got a tank of gas.

A lower-than-expected showing in the straw poll can spell doom for a campaign. Dole, Sam Brownback, Pat Buchanan, Dan Quayle, Lamar Alexander and Tommy Thompson are among its victims.

But skipping the straw poll could hold some peril for someone considered at the top of the heap now, said Dennis Goldford, a Drake University political science professor and co-author of the book "The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event, Third Edition."

"You don't want some lesser-known person to be able to use the straw poll to become a serious contender," Goldford said. "If somebody like Huntsman or Johnson or Trump or Bachmann really were going to do something, and if they all of a sudden were to score big in the straw poll, relative to everybody else, that's a real feather in their cap. The straw poll is definitely a momentum force."

If better-knowns skip the straw poll, the contest would become an exercise in winnowing the social conservative candidates who stress their opposition to gay marriage and abortion.

Showing affects future coverage, fundraising

Some Republicans nationally question whether Iowa has become so dominated by social conservatives that the straw poll and caucuses are a poor test for candidates who need broad national appeal in the general election. Successful GOP presidential candidates usually need to attract fiscal conservatives, moderate Republicans and blue-dog Democrats in addition to social conservatives.

Cownie argued that Iowa is ultimately a good representation of all types of conservatives, and a good gauge of candidates for the rest of the country. The top concerns for the majority of Iowa Republicans are business, jobs and the economy, she said, but the more vocal and active social conservatives sometimes overshadow those who stay silent or have become disengaged when fiscal issues aren't at the forefront, she said.

The straw poll continues to carry national weight, said George Edwards, a political science professor at Texas A&M University. It attracts national news coverage, affects how the media perceives the presidential race, and can either help or hurt a candidate's fundraising efforts.

Iowans will likely see an acceleration of campaigning for the straw poll after Memorial Day, several campaign aides said. If hopefuls aren't ramping up efforts significantly in early June, it's evidence they don't intend to leverage what the straw poll can do for them.

Veteran Iowa strategist Eric Woolson, allied with Huckabee last cycle, said the lack of a runaway favorite can only add excitement to the straw poll.

"It's like a close football game or a close baseball game," he said. "I not only want to watch this to see how it turns out, but I want to get in there and participate and cheer for my team."

Mike Huckabee Decides He's Not Going to Run for President

Tonight on his Fox TV show Governor Mike Huckabee told his audience that after much prayer and consideration, he would not seek the Republican nomination for President. You have to respect his reasons given and admire a man so in touch with his Christian priorities. 

My respect for him grew as I listened to him explain the feeling of calm that came over him as his prayers led him to clarity on this huge decision. I hope his loyal supporters are not too distraught over this development and that they might perhaps consider another strong Christian candidate as they survey the field for the upcoming election cycle. Of course I'm speaking of Governor Sarah Palin from Alaska.  

Here is a piece that ran in the Washington Post last November showing a potential affinity between Huckabee and Palin supporters. ~ teledude

 Washington Post
* * *
 11/23/2010
Sarah Palin’s Mike Huckabee problem
By Aaron Blake and Felicia Sonmez

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee  said Monday that Sarah Palin might well “run away” with the Republican nomination for president.

It’s funny Huckabee should say such a thing, because he’s got a lot of say over whether she does just that. And it has to do with whether he even runs in the first place.

As potential 2012 candidates weigh their prospects and determine their plans for the next presidential race, one thing is clear: that Huckabee and Palin inhabit largely the same space — i.e. they each would perform well without the other, but they might undercut each other if they are in the same race.

There is currently a four-candidate top-tier consisting of Palin, Huckabee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. And indeed, a new Quinnipiac University poll on Monday showed the four of them all huddled between 15 and 19 percent of the vote.

But while Romney and Gingrich have pretty broad support, the base of support for Huckabee and Palin is readily apparent, and for both of them, it starts with born-again evangelicals. The two of them combine for 46 percent of that vote, compared to just 26 percent for Gingrich and Romney. Palin and Huckabee are also the top two vote-getters among women and people without college degrees.

So why is that important? Because if any of the four frontrunners seems least likely to run for president, it would be Huckabee. And, if he doesn’t take the plunge, where is his 26 percent share of evangelicals going to go? Where is his 18 percent share of women going? Who gets his 17 percent share of those without college degrees?

The obvious answer to all three of those questions is Palin. Gingrich has been married three times and has some baggage to show for it. Romney’s ability to connect with rural, Christian voters, meanwhile, remains suspect because of his Mormonism.

It’s hard to see Palin having a path to victory that doesn’t include Iowa or South Carolina, and both of those early states happened to be Huckabee’s strongest in 2008 (he won Iowa and came in second in the Palmetto State).

At a speech Monday in the Hawkeye State, Huckabee went on to joke that, if he does run, “I prefer she not and that she endorse me.”

He’s only half kidding. They each stand to lose plenty by seeing the other one in the race.
* * *